Winners and losers in the Scottish Parliament Election
Published: 13 May 2026
13 May 2026: As the dust settles on the 2026 Scottish election, Professor Nicola McEwen gives her insight on the results. She looks at the different party performances, the standout gains and losses, and what a fifth successive term for the SNP means for governing in Scotland, asking whether there is an alternative party of government to the SNP.
13 May 2026: As the dust settles on the 2026 Scottish election, Professor Nicola McEwen gives her insight on the results. She looks at the different party performances, the standout gains and losses, and what a fifth successive term for the SNP means for governing in Scotland, asking whether there is an alternative party of government to the SNP.
Blog by Professor Nicola McEwen
The Scottish National Party have secured a fifth successive term in government. This is a remarkable achievement, unmatched by any party of UK government. The SNP’s 58 seats are not as many as they had hoped for, but the loss of six seats is fewer than they feared.
The SNP’s share of the vote dropped more steeply: 38.2% in the constituency vote and 27.2% in the regional party list, a drop of 9.5pts and 13.2pts respectively compared to its 2021 result. The latter, in particular, alongside the SNP’s continued dominance in constituency contests, meant that any losses in constituencies were unlikely to be offset by regional list seats. In the event, the SNP picked up just one regional seat in the Highlands and Islands, after losing Caithness, Sutherland and Ross and Skye Lochaber and Badenoch to the Liberal Democrats, and Na h-Eileanan an Iar to Labour. Notwithstanding the historic victory in Shetland, these losses in the Highlands and Islands and the failure to gain any representation in the Borders have introduced more geographic fragmentation in the party’s support.
John Swinney had claimed frequently in the campaign that a majority was within reach and that, given the precedent set in the 2011 election when the SNP last secured a majority, this would be a mandate for an independence referendum. This was always a tactical drive to bring more independence supporters behind the SNP. The SNP’s “failure” to secure a single-party majority has been much commented on since. This reveals the significant distance we still have to travel to move away from the majoritarian culture of Westminster politics towards a more European democratic norm, where minority and coalition governments are a normal, functional, and legitimate outcome of elections conducted under proportional representation and not a sign of political failure.
The SNP were not the only winners to emerge from these elections. The Greens doubled their representation, securing their best performance to date. The Liberal Democrats more than doubled theirs, typically benefiting from their strength in constituencies despite a campaign emphasis on regional list votes on the ‘peach ballot’. Meanwhile, Reform UK came from nowhere to finish second place on the regional list, with 16.6 per cent of the vote, matching Labour’s 17 seats. The key challenge for the Reform leadership will be to build and maintain a cohesive, disciplined, parliamentary group.
The biggest losers from this election were the two parties that dominated twentieth century Scottish politics.
The Scottish Conservative Party, having come second in the previous two elections, fell to fifth and lost around half of its support. Its 11.8 per cent share in both the constituency and regional list votes marks the worst performance in the party’s history in Scotland, surpassing its previous historic low point in the 2024 UK general election. These are clearly deeply worrying times for the party.
But perhaps the biggest sense of loss will be felt by Labour. The party saw itself as the alternative party of government; Anas Sarwar spent the campaign with a “message” to the voters: “you’ve given the SNP 20 years, give me five”. Yet, this marked Labour’s worst electoral performance since the Scottish Parliament’s foundation. Government seems a long way off. Undoubtedly, some of the blame for Labour’s woes should be laid at Keir Starmer’s door. But some internal critical reflection would be advisable for Scottish Labour too.
In the campaign, the party articulated a demand for change without having a plan for change or a vision for how a change of First Minister would improve policy and make life better for voters.
Labour has not won more than 20 per cent of the list vote since 2011, yet there was no discernible regional list strategy, despite it being patently obvious that the party would be reliant on regional list votes for most of its parliamentary representation.
There was a determined effort to fight the election on the SNP’s record in government, without recognising that devolved government does not operate in a vacuum. It is inevitably shaped by wider economic and political events beyond Scotland and also constrained and enabled by the constitutional framework. There remains political space, between independence and the Union as currently constituted, to defend and strengthen Scottish self‑government. Yet Labour - the party of devolution - has shown little appetite for occupying that space.
This election begs the question: is there an alternative party of government to the SNP? The party was re‑elected despite the political and financial troubles of the last session, declining confidence in government, dissatisfaction with public services, and a prevailing belief that the country is heading in the wrong direction. Such conditions would normally be expected to lead to defeat or at least a closer contest. While the party faced competition in a handful of constituencies and sometimes found itself on the losing side, it remains the dominant force in Scottish politics.
Author
Nicola McEwen is a Professor of Public Policy and Governance at the University of Glasgow and Director of the Centre for Public Policy. Nicola has published widely in the field of devolution, nationalism and multi-level government, including on how the UK Internal Market Act affects devolution.
Webinar recording: What happens next? Unpacking the election results
Hear more on this from Professor Nicola McEwen - watch the recording of our live webinar held on Monday 11 May, as Nicola and University of Glasgow and Centre for Public Policy colleagues Professor Kezia Dugdale, Mark McGeoghegan, and Professor Chris Carman reflected on the election results from last week and looked ahead to what it means for the next parliamentary term.
Webinar recording: What happens next? Unpacking the election results
First published: 13 May 2026